Operating cash projection

Adjust the levers. Watch the runway. Operating cash only — acquisition reserve is excluded.

Levers

Operating cash today $2,096,130

Source: Burn Watch May 10. Total cash minus $3M acquisition reserve.

TTM3 recurring burn / month $112,107

3-mo trailing recurring opex. Default = current run-rate.

Months to first close (Arwa) 3

First dividend lands close + 12 months (fixed).

Arwa baseline annual revenue $600,000

Standalone audit/assurance revenue. EBITDA 45%, full distribution.

Advisory revenue / month (Accord-driven) $0

Booked through Arwa. AP fee 55%, Arwa 45% bottom line.

Advisory routing

Through OpCo: AP keeps 55% fee, OpCo books 45% (flows back to AP via dividend). Direct to AP: AP retains 100%.

Horizon

Advisory starts

When does the advisory revenue stream begin?

Cash bust month
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—

End cash (horizon)

—

Effective runway

—

Status vs 18-mo floor

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Operating cash by month

Net flow = advisory fees in (55% of monthly advisory rev) + Arwa dividend (post close+12mo) − TTM3 burn. Acquisition reserve sits separately and is not modeled here.

Show monthly cash table

#	Month	Burn	Advisory in (55%)	Dividend in	Net	Cash end

Sensitivity · Monte Carlo

Each input becomes a triangular distribution (min / most likely / max). Run thousands of simulations to see the distribution of bust months and which inputs move the answer most.

Input distributions

TTM3 burn / month

Min

Most likely

Max

Months to first close

Min

Most likely

Max

Arwa baseline annual revenue

Min

Most likely

Max

Advisory revenue / month

Min

Most likely

Max

Starting operating cash $2,096,130

Fixed at deterministic-tab value (today's measured cash).

Horizon

Advisory routing

Advisory starts

Ready

Median bust month
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—

P10 / P90 bust

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10th · 90th percentile

Bust before 18 mo

—

% of runs

Any cash bust

—

% of runs within horizon

Survives horizon

—

% of runs

Bust month distribution

Histogram of the month each simulated run first crosses zero. Final “Survived” bucket = runs that never bust within the horizon. Vertical lines mark P10, median, and P90.

Sensitivity (Tornado)

Spearman rank correlation between each input and the bust month across all runs. Green = higher input → later bust (good). Red = higher input → earlier bust. Longest bar = most sensitive lever. Runs that never bust are censored at horizon+1 month for this calculation.